50天18億美元，本輪小牛行情“發動機”浮出水面？

時間：2024-01-02|瀏覽：344

10月16日，比特幣大陽，刺穿“8·18”暴跌前期高點，開啟新一輪上漲周期，從27000 USDT上漲至最高44000 USDT，最高累計漲幅超60 %。

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

與此同時，鏈上一個神秘地址（0x1dbbbc3fdb2c4fabd28fd9b84ed99ceb84bfbec5），從10月20日開始，已陸續獲得Tether鑄造的18.1億USDT，并轉入Kraken、Coinbase、OKX等合規交易所、運營節點并上漲時機本輪行情完美匹配，被認為是小牛本輪行情的“潛力引擎”之一。

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

OKLink鏈上的天眼數據（下同）

那么，這個神秘地址的具體購買情況和銷售模式是怎樣的呢？

背后可能是哪個組織，背后又隱藏著怎樣的邏輯？

本文旨在利用OKLink（鏈上天眼等）、Arkham等鏈上數據分析工具對該地址進行深入探索。

50天，17.6億USDT

首先，OKLink瀏覽器數據顯示，該地址初始手續費來源為2023年10月20日23:28:23從Kraken充值地址轉入的0.497 ETH。

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

隨后，根據OKLink鏈上天眼的統計，在手續費轉入神秘地址22分鐘后，原來的Kraken充值地址調用Tether USDT鑄幣合約，首次向神秘地址轉入20 USDT。

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

理論上來說，此次小額鑄造20 USDT應該是為了第一次USDT轉賬測試，以確保該神秘地址可以用于后續USDT轉賬。

隨后，從10月20日到12月9日，該神秘地址從Tether轉出共計17.6億USDT 38次，并向Kraken、Coinbase、OKX、Huobi等中心轉出298次。

交換。

其中，天眼在OKLink鏈上整理的《直接交易主體排行榜》顯示，Kraken以51筆交易排名第一，其次是OKX（25筆交易）和火幣（2筆交易）。

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

結合Arkham的補充數據，Coinbase存款金額排名第一：

這個神秘地址已向Coinbase存入約11.9億美元，占比近70%；
這個神秘地址總共存入了Kraken 3.77億美元，占比約20%；
這個神秘地址總共向OKX存入了1.01億美元，占比約6%；

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

阿卡姆數據

交易信息背后的規則

接下來我們結合OKLink鏈上的天眼和Arkham來分析這個地址的交易數據背后隱藏的信息。

Close to North American schedules and focus on working days

The "24-hour address transaction statistics chart" of the OKLink chain shows that the transaction time preference of the mysterious address is from 21:00 Beijing time to 5:00 the next day, especially between 22:00 and 1:00.

This also coincides perfectly with the US trading time - from early November to early March, US stocks adopt winter time, and the trading time is exactly 22:30-5:00 Beijing time.

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

From this perspective, there is a high probability that the mysterious address is a trading institution that adopts the North American trading market routine.

At the same time, if you make statistics based on coordinates in North America, you will find that from a date perspective, all transactions happen to be concentrated during the working days from Monday to Friday, which further verifies the feasibility of this guess:

There were a total of 347 transactions, of which there were only 21 transactions on Saturday and Sunday, and as many as 326 transactions from Monday to Friday (the transactions on Saturday and Sunday do not rule out the time difference between Friday night and Monday morning).

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

During the same period, the main focus should be on buying BTC

Between October 20 and December 9, this address transferred a total of 1.76 billion BTC to the exchange via USDT, which perfectly matched the timing of the market rise - during the same period, the price of BTC rose from 27,000 USDT to a maximum of 44,000 USDT.

If the mysterious address is frequently transferred to the exchange, BTC will rise significantly in the next few days:

Taking November 7th and 8th as an example, the mysterious address transferred a total of 30 USDT to the exchange, and then BTC rose for 4 consecutive days, from 35,000 USDT to 37,300 USDT;
Taking November 28 to December 1 as an example, the mysterious address transferred a total of 55 USDT to the exchange, and then BTC rose for 5 consecutive days, from 37,700 USDT to 44,000 USDT;

But at the same time, ETH is relatively weak, and the exchange rate ratio of ETH/BTC fluctuates widely around 0.051-0.055.

50天18億美元本輪小牛行情發動機浮出水面

Overall, the mysterious address's move coincided perfectly with the market's (especially) rising timing. After the move stopped on December 9, the market experienced a sharp drop on December 11, and has since fluctuated at a high level.

In comparison, this mysterious address can basically be determined to be one of the leaders of the spot market in this round of market. Every time the exchange is active, the market price rises, and when it is dormant, the price fluctuates/falls.

考慮到該地址原來的Gas資金來源為Kraken，交易對手僅為Coinbase、OKX、Kraken等合規機構，且如此大額的數十億美元購買，基本可以確定不是幣圈機構，但總部傳統機構位于北美，需要在香港等地設有辦事處。

12月28日再次發生變化

值得注意的是，12月28日，在沉寂了20天之后，神秘地址終于再次出手，從Tether獲得了5000萬美元，而交易對手只有三個：Kraken、Bitgo、Coinbase。

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