關于比特幣 (BTC) 四年一次的減半事件，目前仍有很多未知之處，該事件使比特幣礦工獲得的區塊獎勵減少了 50%，而比特幣礦工在驗證 BTC 交易和保護系統安全方面發揮著關鍵作用。

礦工會破產還是逃離網絡？

算力會崩潰嗎？

比特幣價格會先漲后跌嗎？

減半會刺激加密貨幣的進一步采用嗎？

等等。

但有一點是確定的：每隔四年，礦工的區塊獎勵就會減少一半——這是預先編碼到網絡中的——并且在 2024 年 4 月的某個時候，一旦第 210,000 個區塊被驗證，礦工的獎勵將從每個區塊 6.25 BTC 至 3.125。

所有的減半都相似又不同，但今年的減半可能是獨一無二的，因為一月份推出的新現貨市場比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）幫助將比特幣的價格推至歷史新高，使加密貨幣整個行業的市值接近 3 萬億美元。

這就提出了另一個問題：鑒于比特幣ETF似乎讓許多機構開始關注比特幣作為替代資產，四月份的減半是否會加速這一趨勢？

有些人這么認為。

Swan Bitcoin 業務主管 Dante Cook 告訴 Cointelegraph：“機構仍在了解這一資產類別，但了解比特幣的貨幣政策只會引發更多興趣。”

減半是一個重要的證明，“盡管‘安全預算’較低，但比特幣安全仍可以繼續，”盧克索科技公司首席運營官 Ethan Vera 告訴 Cointelegraph，并補充道：

“我們預計機構對基礎商品以及在該領域運營的公司（例如礦商）將持續產生興趣。”

B. Riley Securities 高級董事總經理 Joe Nardini 補充道，對于想要購買代幣本身的機構來說，將整體獎勵減少一半可以說是一種誘惑。

Nardini 告訴 Cointelegraph，更多證據表明 BTC 供應量不會激增，這對許多潛在機構投資者來說是“凈利好”。

然而，并非所有人都認為減半本身就會讓考慮加密貨幣的大公司或金融機構加入比特幣。

“The halving shouldn’t have an impact on whether large corporations/institutional investors will invest in Bitcoin for the first time,” Ruben Sahakyan, director of investment banking at Stifel Financial, told Cointelegraph.

Investors have clearly embraced the spot market Bitcoin ETFs — as seen by the net inflows — and further regulatory clarity will help to drive industry adoption and investor base, continued Sahakyan. “However, some investors are on the sidelines when it comes to investing in mining stocks as they await what impact the halving has on miners’ profitability and volatility is reduced.”

Others suggested that halvings may not be quite as they used to be, i.e., fraught with drama.

“The halving is likely not as big an event as the industry is well prepared and has been deleveraging in anticipation of the potentially reduced economics,” Taras Kulyk, founder and CEO of SunnySide Digital, an infrastructure provider, told Cointelegraph. “Additionally, the massive growth of L2 technologies on top of the Bitcoin Network has increased transaction fees — blunting the impact of the halving even more.”

A “halving-induced” upswing?

Historically, Bitcoin has risen in price in the months leading up to a halving, which is happening again in 2024. Indeed, a JPMorgan analyst referred at the end of February to a “Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria” gripping the crypto market. But is that really the case?

“There are two major narratives and drivers for Bitcoin currently,” Chris Kuiper, director of research at Fidelity Digital Assets (FDA), told Cointelegraph. The first is the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETPs [exchange-traded products], which was a major milestone in Bitcoin’s history and a continued road to adoption.”

The second, Kuiper continued, is the upcoming halving. “As in the past, it’s expected that there will be little effect on the Bitcoin network itself. We may see an initial fall in hash rate, but it will likely only be a matter of time before it recovers to its previous levels and once again moves higher, which wouldn’t affect the operation of the network.”

Recent: Can the digital euro actually find traction in Europe?

Which of these two events is more impactful? We don’t know if the price surge results from the halving or the spot market Bitcoin ETF approvals, B. Riley Securities’ Nardini said, but it’s more likely “ETF induced,” in his opinion.

The JPMorgan analyst also warned the price of Bitcoin could drop to $42,000 after the halving. That, too, would follow the script of past halvings. Hash rate — the overall computing power of the network — is what makes the Bitcoin network more secure. In the past three halvings (2020, 2016, and 2012), the hash rate fell initially but quickly recovered within six to 31 days.

“What is different today from historical halvings are the ETFs, which have dramatically changed the Bitcoin ecosystem,” Clark Swanson, entrepreneur and former CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Blockcap, told Cointelegraph.

The new ETFs have created a “demand shock to Bitcoin’s limited supply,” said Swanson. This will “drive prices even higher and blunt some of the market forces that have traditionally posed challenges for miners.”

“Post halving, there is going to be exactly 50% less Bitcoin produced — or available for sale — while ETF demand seems to remain, which should continue to drive volatility,” agreed Sahakyan. “Some of the miners have again started building up BTC balance sheets, which further reduces the available supply of Bitcoin.”

Others, however, anticipate some surprises. Aki Balogh, co-founder and CEO of DLC.Link, told Cointelegraph that “the supply shock that will come from reduced mining revenues is real and will play some effect.”

Some of that has already been priced in, “but there are unknown second and third-derivative effects that will only come out after the halving has happened,” continued Balogh. Still, “I think scarcity will push the price up somewhat.”

In the longer term, history suggests the hash rate will recover, and the price of Bitcoin continue its ascent to new heights. The halving is a unique situation where the block reward periodically decreases, and in this way, “the inflation rate of the network is pre-coded,” said Vera. “Historically, we have noticed that the decrease in new Bitcoin issuance has a positive impact on price.”

Wherefore BTC proxies?

What about traditional BTC proxies like MicroStrategy and some of the larger BTC mining firms? Will they fare better or worse when the dust settles on the 2024 Bitcoin halving?

Economically speaking, halvings primarily influence BTC supply, said Balogh, whereas “the ETFs, MicroStrategy’s well-publicized purchases, and even El Salvador’s daily purchases of BTC impact the demand side.” The spot market ETFs are likely to affect Bitcoin proxies like MicroStrategy more than the halving. Added Balogh:

“Will MicroStrategy continue to serve as a proxy for BTC, given that one can buy BTC outright in an ETF? Probably slightly less so than before. It’s cleaner to buy an ETF versus a stock that is controlled by a Board of Directors with unknown objectives.”

On the other hand, MicroStrategy recently rebranded itself as a Bitcoin development company, he continued, while the new ETFs “are capital-inefficient in the sense that the BTC just sits there. Investors may prefer Michael Saylor’s more active management strategy versus the ETFs.”

Cook, for his part, foresaw no diminution in MicroStrategy’s role as a BTC proxy post-halving. “MicroStrategy’s stock is up nearly 450% over the past year and over 250% over the last six months. It’s one of the ways institutions will seek to gain exposure to the asset class of Bitcoin,” he told Cointelegraph.

How will miners fare?

What about miners’ prospects? They’re most directly affected, after all.

“Each mining rig has its own profitability price point,” Fidelity’s Daniel Gray noted in a recent blog. “Every operation will be going into this event assuming they have enough reserves on hand to withstand the negative pressure of the halving.”

Maybe the global BTC mining sector today is larger and more stable than in past years.

“The mining sector overall has matured since the last halving and is significantly better positioned, but some will struggle unless the [BTC market] price continues to rise as the network difficulty continues to increase amid outstanding machine orders,” said Stifel’s Sahakyan.

“It appears miners are in better shape overall in terms of lower levels of debt and potentially better control over their costs, such as electricity,” added Kuiper. “What’s also helping miners this cycle is the price appreciation before the halving — something that also hasn’t been seen in previous cycles.”

However, “for smaller miners, it will be tough,” predicted Nardini. They may need to raise capital. Publicly held mining firms, by comparison, will generally have an easier time raising capital.

Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin miners with one peta hash of mining equipment can count on earning roughly $115 a day, Vera told Cointelegraph, which is “a significant improvement since the beginning of the year given the recent price movement,” but still:

“With the halving coming up and a relentless growth of network hash rate certain miners are going to be at risk of negative profitability post-halving.”

Many miners see the writing on the wall — lower and lower block rewards — and are looking more at supplemental revenue opportunities. “Transaction fees on the Bitcoin network are crucial for miners long term,” said Vera, “and we are seeing many start investing time and capital into developing the ecosystem of applications being built on Bitcoin.”

As important as ETFs?

If one compares the introduction of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in January with the quadrennial Bitcoin halving in April, which will posterity deem more consequential?

Few this past week were willing to say the halving. The halving is “second in importance to the ETFs,” said Nardini flatly.

Still, halvings are unique to Bitcoin and represent a sort of advertisement for what is good and enduring about the cryptocurrency (e.g., it’s “hard money”), as well as some of the attendant risks like falling hash rate.

Recent: How will the Bitcoin halving affect ETH price?

Kuiper 表示，從采用的角度來看，人們必須看到比特幣的“貨幣政策”再次按照計劃和預期執行，“這可能會再次向投資者強調，比特幣作為一種資產，正在日益成為一種資產”。與其他金融資產、商品或貨幣相比更加稀缺。”

或者，正如斯旺森指出的：

“正是比特幣的有限供應和減半，這些特征使比特幣成為有史以來最硬的貨幣。”

因此，他補充道，“這也可能是第一個存活了 200 多年的人造貨幣。”

熱點：加密貨幣 加密貨幣領 比特幣 比特幣減半 加密