比特幣以波動和新的歷史高點開始了新的一周，因為比特幣價格波動仍然牢牢占據主導地位。

這種最大的加密貨幣已經創下了有史以來最高的周收盤價，但多頭在突破更高點時仍然面臨著嚴峻的阻力。

隨著價格發現之戰愈演愈烈，比特幣陷入了一種熟悉的不斷變化的狀態——關鍵心理價格水平的拋售壓力，加上現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的持續競價。

本周哪個將占據上風？

很少有人對 ETF 購買帶來的影響規模做好準備。

即使是長期看漲的人也在重新評估他們認為 BTC/USD 在未來幾年可能的走勢，從長期來看，100 萬美元越來越被視為保守。

相反，其他人警告說，加速的牛市可能會比預期更早引發宏觀比特幣價格見頂。

臨近目前，美國宏觀數據即將公布，這將為美聯儲即將做出的利率決定“定下基調”。

與此同時，隨著比特幣處于十字路口，礦商們正在抓緊時間在四月份的區塊補貼減半之前鎖定利潤。

Cointelegraph 在每周潛在 BTC 價格波動催化劑概要中仔細研究了這些主題以及更多內容。

比特幣價格發現之前創下每周新高

比特幣在 3 月 10 日的周收盤價中經歷了經典的波動，結果很容易創下歷史最高水平。

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的數據證實，比特幣/美元在 69,000 美元的高位未能持續，幾分鐘后急劇下行，跌至 67,120 美元。

BTC/美元 1 小時圖。

來源：TradingView

與上周觸及的 69,000 美元區域相呼應，隨后出現了緩解性反彈——最終將比特幣在 3 月 11 日的亞洲交易時段創下歷史新高。

受歡迎的交易商 Skew 在 X（前身為 Twitter）上的回應中寫道：“由于缺乏現貨出價，價格仍在 7 萬美元左右下跌。”

Skew 強調 63,500 美元至 65,500 美元之間的區域是保持當前上漲趨勢的關鍵，如果接下來出現更大幅度的下跌的話。

“開始看到 6 萬美元起的更可觀的出價，可能是暴跌保護出價，”他在談到全球最大交易所幣安的現貨訂單簿行為時說道。

“由于缺乏被動的現貨買家，整體價格大幅下跌。”

Adding to the picture, Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, revealed the on-chain movement of coins previously dormant for up to a decade.

He referenced the Spent Output Age Bands metric, which groups coins involved in transactions by how long they were previously stationary on the network.

“Before the drawdown, there was a movement of 2,877 BTC with an age of 7 to 10 years,” he wrote about the weekly close.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands. Source: Maartunn on X

CPI week looms with Fed rate cut bets absent

Another “classic” week in terms of U.S. macroeconomic data is due to be headlined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for February.

Due on March 12, CPI makes for volatile short-term trading across risk assets, while Bitcoin offers mixed reactions.

The current narrative around inflation and Fed policy remains disjointed. Markets are eager to see interest rate cuts, while Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell last week, are attempting to cool their expectations.

The nature of CPI figures and other data points will thus form a key reference point, with the next Fed meeting just over one week away.

“A hot CPI inflation report this week would really set the tone of the March Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its weekly diary post on X.

“Huge week ahead.”

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, hardly anyone sees a surprise rate cut at this month’s gathering, with the odds at a mere 3% at the time of writing.

Other key data to come this week include the Producer Price Index, or PPI, along with jobless claims on March 13 and 15, respectively.

ETF Bitcoin buyer pressure seen expanding

Bitcoin market observers are waiting for one thing as the week begins: the resumption of buying by the spot ETFs.

Now the most successful ETF launch in history, the nine participants have presided over a BTC price transformation that many see continuing.

While reservations are visible, ETFs may see waning demand and thus no longer buoy the price trajectory, so a sense of optimism among institutions now stands out.

Last week, Cathie Wood, CEO of asset manager ARK Invest, said that the firm’s $1-million BTC price target for 2023 had been “brought forward.”

“No platform has approved Bitcoin yet, so all of this price action has happened before they approve it, and so we haven’t even begun,” she said about the absence of major U.S. wirehouses such as Morgan Stanley and UBS.

As Cointelegraph subsequently reported, industry insiders are gearing up for this to happen and the price impact that could follow.

In a memo on March 9, crypto-native asset manager Bitwise listed “major warehouses,” “institutional consultants” and “large corporations” as being next in line to add BTC exposure.

“Based on current trends, I’d suspect we’ll see our first significant flows from these three groups in Q2 2024, and I think those flows will accelerate throughout the year as these investors become more comfortable with the new products,” chief investment officer Matt Hougan wrote.

Net Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: Apollo

Puell Multiple nears multi-year high amid mushrooming miner outflows

Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high before its next halving — a unique event in its history.

This has surprised many, and miners appear to be no exception. Despite the upcoming halving exposing them to 50% less “new” BTC per block, miners have significantly upped their selling around the highs.

The phenomenon has been witnessed throughout 2024, with outflows from miner wallets beginning at the launch of the ETFs on Jan. 11, CryptoQuant data shows.

Bitcoin miner outflow. Source: CryptoQuant

Total daily revenue on March 7, meanwhile, was the second-highest ever at $75.9 million, CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno revealed on X.

Bitcoin miner daily revenue. Source: Julio Moreno on X

“With the recent price of Bitcoin soaring, miner revenues have rapidly increased,” trading suite DecenTrader continued on the topic on March 11.

DecenTrader referenced the Puell Multiple — a measure of the value of coin issuance against its yearly moving average — hitting some of its highest levels in six years. The multiple functions as a guide to macro tops and bottoms.

“That has resulted in a Puell Multiple score of +2.4 which is historically on the high side — though not as high as previous cycle peaks,” it noted.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: DecenTrader on X

Hodlers stay resistant to selling

Amid the inbound price discovery, seasoned Bitcoin hodlers are keeping their hard-earned coins firmly in their wallets.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows long-term holders (LTHs) not yet matching transfer volumes seen during 2021, the year when BTC/USD first hit $69,000.

Bitcoin transfer volume by LTHs in profit. Source: Glassnode

The largest recent spike of around 72,000 BTC, in fact, occurred on Feb. 24, with $70,000 and higher so far not generating a larger single-day tally.

According to crypto education resource On-Chain College, meanwhile, the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) for LTHs, while strong, is not yet at levels systematic of a blow-off top.

“Bitcoin’s most convicted holders are still holding at unrealized profit levels that usually occur well before the cycle peak,” it told X followers on March 11.

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