據摩根大通分析，減半后比特幣價格將跌至42,000美元。

這并不是唯一流傳的類似預測，因為許多人預計會出現修正，而減半可能是發生這種情況的正確時機。

4月減半及摩根大通對比特幣價格的分析

2月份比特幣價格上漲至6萬美元以上，可能也是受減半預期以及新ETF對市場影響的推動。

換句話說，市場可能已經消化了減半及其對價格的影響，因為這是不可避免且可預測的事件。

盡管確切的日期尚不清楚，但已經可以精確且絕對確定地知道它將發生在區塊號 840,000 處。

由于剩余區塊不足7000個，且大約每10分鐘開采一個或稍少，預計減半應該在4月中旬之后發生。

過去，在所有減半發生后，比特幣的價格就開始上漲，盡管是在幾個月之后。

市場很可能預計這次也會出現類似的動態，而且他們可能已經在定價中了。

然而，減半對比特幣價格的影響并不是立竿見影的，因此在減半發生時，可能會發生某種拋售消息。

摩根大通的假設

摩根大通分析師 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 為這一推理添加了另一個要素。

事實上，隨著減半，比特幣礦工的收入將大大減少，因為他們的獎勵將減半。

交易費用是他們的其他收入來源，可能不會減少，但金額要低得多。

目前獎勵為 6.25 BTC，這些獎勵是創建并給予成功驗證單個區塊的礦工的，但減半后獎勵將減少至 3.125 BTC。

相反，費用是可變的，但在此期間，每個區塊很少超過 0.5 BTC。

因此，礦工的收入將從每個區塊不到 7 BTC 降至略高于 3.5 BTC，幾乎減半。

此外，Panigirtzoglou 還假設，由于 BTC 市值的上漲，開采成本也會增加。

采礦成本

礦工必須面對的主要成本分為三類。

最高的絕對成本與電力消耗有關。

另一個重要的成本因素與哈希提取系統的冷卻有關。

第三個重要成本項目是購買礦機的費用。

第一個成本與消耗的能源有關，完全與礦工自己做出的自主且完全獨立的決策相關。

So in theory they could also decide to cut it, but the less energy is consumed, the fewer hashes are extracted, reducing the chances of earning. The mining is in fact a competition in which the winner is the one who extracts more hashes, so miners do not benefit from extracting less.

The second cost is related to the first one, because the less energy is consumed, the less heat needs to be disposed of.

The third voice is decisive at the time of halving. In fact, as the income inevitably decreases, miners will be forced to cut costs, and they will simply do so by turning off the less efficient machines – those that extract fewer hashes with the same amount of energy consumed.

Turning off the machines, however, makes them less competitive, so it will be convenient for them to replace the old inefficient machines with new very efficient machines that, however, have a significant cost.

So although in reality overall costs should decrease, they should increase in proportion to revenues, since these will almost halve.

JPMorgan’s prediction on the price of Bitcoin after the halving

Panigirtzoglou argues that the cost of mining BTC has empirically acted over time as a lower limit for the market price of Bitcoin.

Use the term “empirically” correctly because there is actually no direct link between the average cost of extracting 1 BTC and its market value.

Simply, it may not be convenient for miners to sell BTC at a lower price than their extraction cost, but it could be convenient for everyone else.

It should not be forgotten that currently all miners collectively extract about 900 BTC per day, while for example the Grayscale ETF alone has sold about 3,000 per day in recent days.

However, the sales of miners, which are constant, influence the price of Bitcoin in the medium/long term, just as they did after all three previous halvings, although months after their occurrence.

According to Panigirtzoglou, currently the average extraction cost of one BTC would be around $26,500, which is also the amount around which the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated for much of 2023. After the halving, this figure should double, according to the JPMorgan analyst, rising to $53,000.

But Panigirtzoglou adds that, once the euphoria about Bitcoin has subsided, after the April halving, they estimate that the price of BTC could also drop to $42,000.

This reasoning seems to make sense, provided that before the halving the price of Bitcoin does not skyrocket further.

That is, a 30% drop in the value of the BTC price after the halving would be normal, but if in the meantime it had risen to $70,000, or even $80,000 as some speculate, a 30% decline could bring it down to just $50,000 or $55,000.

Therefore, it will not only count the impact of the possible sell the news and the dissipation of the current euphoria, because these two factors combined could lead to a 30% drop.

It will also depend on the price level from which this retracement will start, because there is still almost a month and a half left until the halving, during which the price could theoretically rise even further.

It should be noted, however, that there is nothing preventing the price of BTC from retracing by a percentage even higher than 30%, as happened for example in May 2021.

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