對(duì)于比特幣礦工來說，沒有什么特別好的消息：減半即將到來，但算力仍然很高。

挖礦是一種競(jìng)賽，算力越高的人賺取更多的BTC，但獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)是固定的，大約每4年就會(huì)隨著減半而減半。

問題是，算力越高，消耗的電力就越多，成本就會(huì)增加：超過一定水平，就有虧損挖礦的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

比特幣減半和當(dāng)前的算力水平

比特幣協(xié)議規(guī)定，成功驗(yàn)證區(qū)塊的礦工將獲得一些比特幣獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。

最初，這個(gè)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)是 50 BTC，協(xié)議規(guī)定每 210,000 個(gè)區(qū)塊獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)減半。

到目前為止已經(jīng)發(fā)生了三次減半，下一次減半將在區(qū)塊號(hào) 840,000 處將獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)減少至 3.125 BTC。

由于第 830,000 號(hào)區(qū)塊是在周末開采的，現(xiàn)在距離下一次減半還剩不到 10,000 個(gè)區(qū)塊。

剛剛：#Bitcoin 減半之前還剩 10,000 個(gè)區(qū)塊。 pic.twitter.com/Y3W3iicz2N

—Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) 2024 年 2 月 11 日

平均開采一個(gè)區(qū)塊的時(shí)間不到10分鐘，而且一次只能開采一個(gè)區(qū)塊，預(yù)計(jì)減半應(yīng)該發(fā)生在4月中旬左右。

獎(jiǎng)金減半

事實(shí)上，礦工通過挖掘比特幣區(qū)塊鏈的區(qū)塊來賺取兩種類型的收入。

第一個(gè)是獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)，從4月份開始，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)將從目前的6.25 BTC每個(gè)區(qū)塊減少到3.125 BTC。

第二個(gè)是費(fèi)用，但費(fèi)用會(huì)隨著時(shí)間的推移而變化。然而，由于每個(gè)區(qū)塊的字節(jié)大小是有限的，礦工可以包含在一個(gè)區(qū)塊中的交易數(shù)量是有限的，這也限制了費(fèi)用。

例如，今天開采的 830,101 號(hào)區(qū)塊僅允許礦工總共賺取 0.145 BTC，而之前的區(qū)塊為 0.235。

因此，一般來說，費(fèi)用不僅比當(dāng)前獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)低得多，而且與他們從下一個(gè)減半開始獲得的 3.125 BTC 新獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)相比也會(huì)更低。

由于比特幣礦工只賺取BTC，其市場(chǎng)價(jià)值也極大地影響了他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)。幸運(yùn)的是，目前它很高，但如果它下降，礦工可能會(huì)遇到問題。

礦工的問題

礦工的真正問題是高電力消耗。

事實(shí)上，挖礦是一種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，對(duì)于每個(gè)區(qū)塊來說，那些能夠依靠很高算力的人會(huì)受到極大的青睞。一方面，這導(dǎo)致許多礦工通過礦池集中資源，另一方面，由于更多的算力也意味著更多的電力消耗，因此導(dǎo)致非常高的能源消耗。

At the moment the reward is halved, and in the absence of a significant increase in fees, all this could lead to major economic sustainability problems for many miners, especially if the price of BTC were to drop significantly.

In this case, the only solution would be to consume less, and the only way to do it would be to turn off less efficient machines, effectively reducing revenue opportunities as well.

It is not surprising, therefore, that recently the stock prices of Bitcoin mining companies have dropped in the stock market.

Taking as a reference the one with the highest market capitalization, namely MARA of Marathon Digital Holdings, after rising to $31 at the end of December, it then fell below $16 in January, when the price of BTC fell below $39,000. However, thanks to the rise in the price of BTC, it has risen to almost $24, but still remains well below the values at the end of 2023.

In other words, recently the stock performances of mining companies have been lower and more volatile than those of Bitcoin itself, to the point that MARA stock was even at $19 in July of last year, which is slightly below the current level and above the level of late January 2024.

Part of this problem could be contained by the fees generated by the Ordinals, which are a kind of NFT on the Bitcoin blockchain that have already significantly increased the fees paid by users to miners.

The relationship between hashrate and Bitcoin halving

All of this is exacerbated by a very high hashrate.

Just think that on February 3rd, which is just under ten days ago, the all-time daily record of almost 650 Eh/s was recorded.

Therefore, although in recent years increasingly efficient machines have been launched on the market, consumption is at its highest, excluding momentary consumption peaks during the 2021 bubble.

This will make it even more difficult for miners to bear the halving of the reward, to the point that those who do not have new super-efficient machines will probably have to stop mining, if they want to do it profitably, unless they have very low-cost electricity or the price of Bitcoin rises further.

To be honest, we can expect a reduction in hashrate after the halving, precisely because of the dynamics described above, but it may not necessarily be a collapse. In fact, nowadays the new super-efficient machines are very common, and this could mean a moderate reduction in hashrate due to the decommissioning of old and less powerful machines.

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