事實證明，減半對比特幣來說是一次“拋售新聞”事件，而且由于利率持續存在不確定性，新一輪反彈可能需要一段時間。

比特幣減半已經過去兩周了，至少在短期內，這一罕見事件并沒有帶來多頭所希望的價格爆炸式增長。

你可能會說，其中很多事情都超出了 BTC 的控制范圍。中東緊張局勢加劇導致加密貨幣市場突然急劇下跌。

我們在 4 月 19 日就看到了這一點，當時以色列對伊朗領土發動襲擊的消息傳出后，比特幣跌破 60,000 美元。

盡管價格迅速回升，但這場日益復雜的沖突的進一步動亂或升級可能會帶來進一步的阻力。

雖然 60,000 美元已被證明是 BTC 的一個重要心理門檻，但決心在 5 月 1 日受到了嚴峻考驗，當時價格跌至 56,555 美元的低點。

以下是

自減半以來我們學到的五件事，可以幫助我們規劃接下來會發生什么。

4 月份比特幣價格 |資料來源：CoinGecko

幾周來，加密貨幣恐懼和貪婪指數一直在閃爍著“貪婪”或“極度貪婪”的分數，但交易者在五月初得到了發人深省的現實檢驗。

為什么？因為4月份BTC大幅下跌。在創下歷史新高 71,329.30 美元后，價格暴跌 14.95%，月收盤價為 59,228.70 美元。

盡管目前價值已成功恢復，但人們仍對未來持謹慎態度。這是比特幣在減半前首次創下歷史新高。

一些分析師認為，這可能是當前牛市周期中最好的情況，而另一些分析師則認為，在反彈恢復之前可能需要很長時間的等待。

“Left Curve”是一篇關于為什么你對 #crypto 不夠樂觀的文章。是時候閉上眼睛了，BTFD！ https://t.co/0pQyOjZhPS pic.twitter.com/r9QUiGYZTG

— 亞瑟·海耶斯 (@CryptoHayes) 2024 年 4 月 23 日

2. 對比特幣前景的預測好壞參半

BitMEX 前創始人 Arthur Hayes 聲稱他一直看到這種情況的發生，一系列完美的事件拖累了比特幣的下跌：

“美國納稅季、對美聯儲將采取的行動的驚愕、比特幣減半拋售的新聞事件以及美國比特幣 ETF 管理資產增長放緩在過去兩周結合在一起，產生了急需的市場清理。”

阿瑟·海耶斯

盡管如此，他確實相信比特幣現在已經觸及局部低點，“直到 8 月份，價格將在 60,000 美元到 70,000 美元之間波動”。

盡管渣打銀行加倍預測 BTC 到今年年底將達到 150,000 美元，但該銀行警告稱，比特幣價格可能進一步跌至 50,000 美元。

Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone has also struck a cautious tone. In a note shared with crypto.news, he said “sticky inflation appears connected to speculative excesses in Bitcoin and equity prices” — and there may be some time yet before the Federal Reserve starts easing interest rates. He wrote:

“If the S&P 500 is starting to retrace the almost straight up rally from the October low, the highly volatile crypto might su?er. Our view is the Fed is unlikely to ease until beta tells it to by de?ating, with headwinds for all risks assets and potential tailwinds for gold.”

Mike McGlone

Bitcoin ETF inflows since their launch in January | Source: SoSo Value 3. Times are tough for Bitcoin ETFs

After initial euphoria following their approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January, appetite for exchange-traded funds based on Bitcoin’s spot price looks like it’s starting to cool.

Data from SoSo Value shows there were record outflows of $563 million from BTC ETFs on May 1 — with a six-day streak in the red snapped on May 3, when there were total inflows of $378 million. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart said at the time that “inflows and outflows are part of the norm in the life of an ETF.”

Nonetheless, despite lofty predictions that the arrival of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong would deliver trading volumes that far exceeded the debut on Wall Street, it was a disappointing launch, to say the least.

Just $8.5 million in trading volumes were recorded across spot Bitcoin ETFs on day one — 98.6% less than the $628 million seen when they arrived in the U.S. But JAN3 CEO Samson Mow believes exchange-traded funds in Asia just need time to find their feet:

#Bitcoin ETFs in HK are going to be big. Maybe not on day 1 or 2, but the long term implications are massive. There is really nothing else for Chinese investors to put their money into at this time. https://t.co/hOSCa7siid

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 29, 2024

4. A nervous wait for miners

CryptoQuant recently told crypto.news that Bitcoin miners could face significant challenges unless prices recover in the coming weeks — with higher electricity costs and permanently lower block rewards leaving the industry feeling the pinch. Head of research Julio Moreno said:

“[The market is] more likely to see a miner capitulation if prices don’t recover significantly during the summer. Especially with the hashprice (average miner revenue per hash) making new lows.”

Julio Moreno

But there’s a problem: trading volumes across the board tend to decline during the summer months — with Bitcoin typically performing below average between June and September.

#Bitcoin Emerges pic.twitter.com/vNEIgeH2TU

— Michael Saylor? (@saylor) May 4, 2024

5. Keep an eye on these two

Undeterred, some executives are continuing to get their hands on as much Bitcoin as they can.

MicroStrategy 目前擁有 214,400 BTC，平均價格為每枚 35,180 美元。鑒于撰寫本文時比特幣的交易價格為 63,600 美元，Michael Saylor 的大賭注意味著該公司坐擁 81 億美元的賬面利潤。

與此同時，由 Twitter 前首席執行官杰克·多西 (Jack Dorsey) 領導的 Block 現在已開始將其毛利潤的很大一部分用于購買額外的 BTC。

無法預測比特幣下一步將走向何方，但看起來有理由保持樂觀。

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熱點：比特幣 比特幣減半 特幣 減半