2022年，隨著通貨膨脹飆升，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提高利率以防止工資螺旋式上升。

現(xiàn)在，隨著失業(yè)率上升，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)發(fā)出了一個(gè)信號(hào)，即愿意降低利率以阻止裁員的惡性循環(huán)，即使這意味著通脹會(huì)暫時(shí)上升。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾在上周三新聞發(fā)布會(huì)的開場(chǎng)白中宣布，失業(yè)率的意外上升可能促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的情況下首次降息。

隨后，他在回答記者提問(wèn)時(shí)多次重復(fù)了這一信息。

他在為期兩天的政策會(huì)議后表示，雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在降息之前要等待確保通脹戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)取得勝利，但“就業(yè)市場(chǎng)意外疲軟可能也需要政策回應(yīng)。”

鮑威爾表示，他目前沒有看到就業(yè)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)任何裂縫，但一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家并不那么樂(lè)觀。

他們指出，美國(guó)多州失業(yè)率大幅上升，臨時(shí)工持續(xù)減少、工作時(shí)間縮短。

無(wú)論如何，鮑威爾和他的同事們都清楚，他們所認(rèn)為的穩(wěn)定的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)可能很快就會(huì)變質(zhì)。

從歷史上看，失業(yè)率一旦開始攀升，就會(huì)因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)紛紛宣布裁員而大幅上升。

如果勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)過(guò)度疲軟，鮑威爾可能會(huì)降低利率。

前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家溫迪·埃德爾伯格表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)“不希望失業(yè)率上升”。

她表示，鮑威爾可能會(huì)為寬松政策敞開大門，因?yàn)橥洝胺浅＝咏泵缆?lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo)。

她補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不必通過(guò)打擊勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)來(lái)控制物價(jià)上漲，而是可以選擇在未來(lái)幾年忍受通脹略高的情況。

鮑威爾表示：“我們堅(jiān)信，隨著時(shí)間的推移，通脹率將降至2%。”

這對(duì)于尋求連任的拜登來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)好消息。

選民已經(jīng)對(duì)他對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的處理感到悲觀。

11 月大選前失業(yè)率急劇上升只會(huì)加劇這種看法。

這對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)也是個(gè)好消息。

隨著通脹從兩年前的極高水平回落，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)現(xiàn)在可以為經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至金融市場(chǎng)提供更多支持。

全球資產(chǎn)管理公司 Point72 的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家兼策略師索菲亞·德羅索斯 (Sophia Drossos) 周五表示：

“各國(guó)央行正在采取一些措施來(lái)幫助實(shí)現(xiàn)其任務(wù)中的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，特別是在美國(guó)，這對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)非常有利。”

勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)似乎正在放緩

Federal Reserve officials' latest economic forecasts show they expect unemployment to rise this year, but not by much. Policymakers expect the unemployment rate to rise to an average of 4% by the final quarter of 2024, from a two-year high of 3.9% in February.

Powell said the Fed recognized the risk that a large number of layoffs could lead to a "fairly rapid rise" in unemployment as companies curb hiring. But he added that he doesn't think that will happen, especially since jobless claims are "very low."

However, some economists do see signs of a job market slowdown. According to calculations by Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS, unemployment rates in 20 states have risen significantly enough to trigger the so-called "Sam's Rule."

The Sahm Rule, proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, applies to the national economy, not individual states. Under this rule, when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage point or more relative to the previous 12-month low, it signals the onset of a recession.

But that has not happened yet, and the rule will only take effect when the U.S. unemployment rate rises above 4%. Pingle is one of the fewer analysts who still predict a U.S. recession this year. States with sharp increases in unemployment include New York, California and the political swing states of Arizona and Wisconsin.

Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, sees the Sam rule from another perspective, saying it has been triggered by certain categories of workers, including those with a high school degree or less. of workers, as well as those approaching retirement, "the unemployment rate is increasingly sending warning signs." He also predicted a recession in 2024.

Another potential sign of a softening labor market is that many Americans are working fewer hours. Data compiled by payroll management company ADP show that as a group, hourly workers are working fewer hours than before the pandemic.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said it's unclear whether workers are voluntarily reducing their hours or whether companies are cutting back on employees' hours. Whatever the reason, the reduction in weekly working hours meant that for many workers their weekly wages were not keeping pace with inflation, she said.

San Francisco Fed President Daly said in Washington last month that the danger of a damaging downturn in the job market seemed remote. But she also warned:

"Given the historically rapid pace of labor market shifts, this is a risk we must keep in mind."

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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