1. Bitcoin’s halving cycle

Halving rewards will correspondingly reduce the number of newly mined Bitcoins. This happens after every 210,000 blocks, creating a four-year price cycle. Previous halvings occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

This event will reduce profitability for miners, who use custom hardware (application-specific integrated circuits, ASICs) to process transactions. According to CoinDesk, mining a block profitably will require at least $10,000 to $15,000 in 2023. After the halving, the cost could skyrocket to $40,000 per coin.

2. When will Bitcoin halve in 2024?

The reward will be reduced from 50 bitcoins per block to 6.25 bitcoins, and will be further reduced to 3.125 bitcoins on April 19, 2024.

3. Impact on price: in the context of Bitcoin halving

While the scarcity narrative is important, there are other factors at play besides shrinking supply. In theory, lower inflation should boost demand, but the actual price impact is likely to be limited.

The slower rate of coin production reduces the inflation rate while ensuring that the supply of Bitcoins remains limited (21 million coins). This non-inflationary nature appeals to cryptocurrency enthusiasts: unlike fiat currencies and gold, Bitcoin is not subject to central institutions and natural reserves.

Lower rewards promote the health and sustainability of the network, and Bitcoin is also affected by factors other than the speed of supply expansion. These factors include drivers within and outside the blockchain industry: regulation, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitics, and more.

That is, Bitcoin’s scarcity is also programmable and therefore known in advance. Models that tie it directly to price increases may be flawed. Otherwise, Litecoin (another cryptocurrency that undergoes halvings) would continue to rise after each halving, which is not the case.

In other words, after the Bitcoin halving, the supply deflation in the market will be delayed. The market will first consume the sentiment of other factors. This process will take about 3-6 months. After the market sentiment is consumed, the market supply will Deflation will slowly react, so I personally think that Bitcoin will start a bull market at the end of this year or the beginning of next year!

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