美聯儲公布 1 月份 FOMC 貨幣政策會議紀要。

會議紀要顯示，美聯儲官員認為政策利率可能已經達到本周期的峰值，但大多數官員注意到降息過快的風險，部分官員看到了通脹進展可能停滯的風險。

通脹風險預測略有上行。

一些美聯儲官員表示，放慢資產負債表規?？梢允惯^渡順利進行。

他們注意到隔夜逆回購的使用有所減少，許多官員表示，在下次會議上開始就資產負債表進行深入討論是適當的。

一些政策制定者表示，資產負債表縮減步伐放慢可能會讓資產負債表縮減持續更長時間。

美聯儲工作人員指出，華爾街的普遍共識是QT放緩將于7月開始，盡管具體開始日期存在很大不確定性。

爭論的核心是，在不造成金融市場混亂或損害其更廣泛政策目標的情況下，美聯儲可以在多大程度上縮減資產負債表。

到目前為止，自 2022 年 6 月開始 QT 以來，其資產負債表已縮減約 1.3 萬億美元。

當前的貨幣政策是限制性的，但仍然高度關注通脹風險

1月份會議紀要顯示，在經濟前景方面，與會者認為當前的貨幣政策立場是限制性的，將繼續對經濟活動和通脹施加下行壓力。

因此，他們預計商品和勞動力市場的供需將繼續平衡。

鑒于政策限制、供應狀況持續改善和更有利的通脹數據，與會者認為實現就業和通脹目標的風險正在平衡。

不過，與會者指出，經濟前景不明朗，通脹風險仍高度擔憂。

市場參與者認為政策的限制性明顯低于預期，這可能會給總需求帶來不必要的推動，并阻礙通脹進程。

，這可能會導致總需求增加不必要的動力，并導致通貨膨脹加劇

金融狀況溫和且寬松

會議紀要指出，金融狀況溫和緩解，但仍與去年夏天大致相同，并且比加息周期開始時緊縮得多。

兩次會議期間，美國國債名義收益率的下降集中在收益率曲線的前端。

工作人員模型顯示，短期收益率下降主要是由于政策利率預期路徑較低，并且集中在預期實際利率上，預期通脹變化不大。

通脹衍生品的定價繼續表明通脹的短期路徑與今年晚些時候重返 2% 一致。

Fed worries about cutting interest rates too early or too much

The minutes show that market participants generally believe that recent inflation data and the dot plot released in December last year have increased the possibility that interest rates may be cut earlier than expected. The Open Markets Department's Primary Dealer Survey and Market Participant Survey showed little change in the pattern path of the federal funds rate from December, but indicated an increased likelihood of an early rate cut.

Institutional analyst Joseph Richter said the Fed is both worried that real interest rates remain too tight and is also worried about cutting interest rates too early or too much. For Treasuries, that could make it difficult to bounce back in the near term as markets consider how many rate cuts there might be, with eventual rate cuts pricing in what could mean a retest of recent yield highs.

Labor market remains tight

The minutes pointed out that data obtained at the January 30-31 meeting showed that U.S. real GDP growth was solid in the fourth quarter of 2023, but it slowed down compared with the strong growth in the third quarter. Labor market conditions remain tight but show signs of further easing. Consumer price inflation fell significantly during the year, although it remained above 2%. The relationship between labor supply and demand continues to gradually improve. Nonfarm payroll employment grew at a slower average monthly rate in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in December, the same as the third quarter average. However, the labor force participation rate fell, as did the employment-to-population ratio.

Borrowing costs fall, small business lending tightens

In domestic credit markets, borrowing costs for most businesses, households and municipalities fell slightly between the two meetings but remained elevated, Fed staff said. And interest rates on existing credit card accounts have barely changed. Interest rates for industrial and small business loans increased during the session. Credit continues to be widely available to businesses, households and municipalities. However, credit availability to small businesses continues to tighten. In the January Senior Loan Officer Opinions Survey (SLOOS), banks reported that standards and terms for industrial and commercial loans to businesses of all sizes tightened during the fourth quarter.

Financial and credit tightening is still expected to affect economic output this year and next

The economic forecast prepared by Federal Reserve staff for the January meeting is slightly stronger than the December forecast, as incoming data suggest that an upward revision to 2023 GDP growth lifts output levels throughout the forecast period. The lagged effects of early monetary policy actions, through continued tightening of financial and credit conditions, are still expected to push output growth in 2024 and 2025 below staff estimates of potential growth; by 2026, output is expected to be in line with potential growth Growth levels are synchronized. The forecast path for the unemployment rate was revised slightly downward, reflecting upward revisions to output levels. Both overall PCE and core PCE are expected to decline in 2024. By 2026, overall and core PCE are expected to approach 2%.

After the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell slightly in the short term. Spot gold hit $2020 per ounce. The tone of the minutes was seen as a bit hawkish or consistent with Powell's caution, with the Fed wanting to see more evidence of inflation progress before cutting rates.

"Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos commented on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting, saying that at last month's policy meeting, only two officials emphasized the risks of keeping interest rates at too high a level for too long, and more Fed officials said they were worried The risk is of cutting rates too early and of entrenched price pressures, rather than of keeping rates too high for too long.

Timiraos said officials are trying to balance the risk that they ease policy too slowly and the economy collapses under the weight of high interest rates. Another is to ease monetary policy too quickly, allowing inflation to become entrenched above the 2% target.

It is worth mentioning that since the last FOMC meeting, interest rate cut expectations have dropped significantly. Now an interest rate cut in March is no longer possible, and the total number of interest rate cuts in 2024 has also been reduced from 6 to 3 to 4 times.

Article forwarded from: Golden Ten Data

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