2024 年將成為以太坊區(qū)塊鏈歷史上最重要的一年。

除了美國(guó)可能批準(zhǔn)以太坊 (ETH) 現(xiàn)貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 之外，今年還將標(biāo)志著該網(wǎng)絡(luò)自 2022 年合并以來(lái)的第一個(gè)牛市周期。

此更新使 ETH 在網(wǎng)絡(luò)使用率較高期間出現(xiàn)通貨緊縮。

相關(guān)：以太坊 ETF 的推出比您預(yù)期的要早

自合并以來(lái)，0.2% 的以太幣供應(yīng)已被銷毀，隨著網(wǎng)絡(luò)使用量的增加，這個(gè)數(shù)字將在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月進(jìn)一步增加。

自合并以來(lái)的 ETH 供應(yīng)。資料來(lái)源：Ultra Sound Money

此外，下一次以太坊網(wǎng)絡(luò)更新——以太坊改進(jìn)提案 4844——計(jì)劃于今年進(jìn)行。它的目標(biāo)是使圍繞以太坊構(gòu)建的整個(gè)第 2 層 (L2s) 區(qū)塊鏈生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的成本降低 10 倍。

這將是這個(gè)周期的主要轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，它將帶領(lǐng)以太坊和 Layer 2 進(jìn)入歷史上最大的一年。

這個(gè)想法很簡(jiǎn)單：如果沒(méi)有 L2，以太坊就無(wú)法擴(kuò)展。如果沒(méi)有子鏈和專業(yè)的業(yè)務(wù)開發(fā)團(tuán)隊(duì)，L2 就無(wú)法以所需的速度增長(zhǎng)。

要理解這一點(diǎn)，值得退一步問(wèn)：

與比特幣（BTC）不同，以太幣不僅僅是一種資產(chǎn)，其內(nèi)在價(jià)值僅與區(qū)塊鏈的功能相關(guān)。

以太坊更符合共享和可編程數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)或去中心化應(yīng)用程序（DApp）開發(fā)平臺(tái)的理念。因此，要使其有價(jià)值，就必須在其上存在有價(jià)值的應(yīng)用。

其中一些應(yīng)用程序已經(jīng)存在，并且是從 Web3 原生出現(xiàn)的，但絕大多數(shù)將來(lái)自傳統(tǒng)公司調(diào)整其系統(tǒng)并與區(qū)塊鏈集成。

這是以前從未實(shí)現(xiàn)過(guò)的。目前鏈上存在的主要非原生 Web3 殺手級(jí)應(yīng)用程序有哪些？在上一次牛市之后，有多少公司認(rèn)真維護(hù)了他們的鏈上應(yīng)用程序？

他們?nèi)毕闹饕蚴呛苌儆腥四軌颉坝脜^(qū)塊鏈思考”，能夠看到問(wèn)題并將區(qū)塊鏈視為解決方案，或者能夠充分理解代幣以思考與之相關(guān)的商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。

在過(guò)去的周期中，并不能始終如一地提供指導(dǎo)這些參與者的幫助，因?yàn)椤捎趨^(qū)塊鏈的廣泛性和不可知性——大多數(shù)參與者都是非常通才的。

結(jié)果，一些操作不可行，因?yàn)樗鼈兣c meme 幣和不可替代代幣（NFT）繁榮爭(zhēng)奪區(qū)塊空間。

公司渴望嘗試區(qū)塊鏈，但不知道如何進(jìn)行，并且需要區(qū)塊鏈本身或其他 Web3 公司的業(yè)務(wù)開發(fā)團(tuán)隊(duì)的指導(dǎo)。

Business development segmentation is usually done by region, resulting in these teams having to cater to 20 different sectors, each with distinct needs and complex applications. The outcome was superficial guidance that ultimately doomed these projects over time.

But in 2024, the game will change.

With more leadership positions at large companies — with a much more mature mindset about how to build on-chain — the blockchain ecosystem is going through a period of specialization.

Related: 3 bull market narratives for 2024 that you haven’t heard about yet

Today, it is evident that the largest L2 blockchains are segmenting into subchains with specific configurations and specialized teams and structures for onboarding specific niches.

Using Polygon as an example, instead of having just one generalist blockchain for all applications and a regional business development team, Polygon is already diversifying into several subchains dedicated to specific use cases.

Until now, blockchain scaling had 2 paradigms: Monolithic & ModularIntroducing the next one: AggregationA novel solution combining the benefits of monolithic & modular designs by unifying liquidity via safe, near-instant atomic cross-chain txs using ZK proofs.Feb Mainnet … pic.twitter.com/mE0qssoWyJ

— Polygon | Aggregated (@0xPolygon) January 24, 2024

How is this happening? Polygon is providing the market with its Chain Development Kit (CDK) — on which subchains are built — and all liquidity is connected by an aggregation layer.

In recent weeks, Polygon has announced:

• B2, a CDK chain focused on building rollups for Bitcoin

• OEV Network, a CDK chain aimed at capturing all oracle extractable value (OEV)

• Hypr, a CDK chain with a focus on gaming

• Libre, a CDK chain dedicated to the issuance of tokenized assets for institutions

• FireDrops, a CDK chain designed for loyalty actions for FlipKart, India’s largest e-commerce.

And the same path is being followed by all the other major L2 blockchains. What is referred to as CDK by Polygon is called “Op-Stack” by Optimism, for example.

Blockchains based on OP Stack. Source: CryptoRank

The paradigm shift is brutal, and 2024 promises to be a major battle, as a lot of specialized subchains and business development teams from each of these major L2 blockchains will be competing in the same segments.

With that said, 2024 has everything to become the year when the killer apps of Web2 are finally seen emerging in Web3.

The year will mark the beginning of the retention cycle, where companies and users will start and continue to incorporate blockchain into their daily lives.

It’ll be the year of the L2 blockchains and, consequently, the biggest year for the Ethereum network.

Lugui Tillier is the chief commercial officer of Lumx, a Web3 studio in Rio de Janeiro that counts BTG Pactual Bank, the largest investment bank in Latin America, among its investors.

本文僅供一般參考之用，無(wú)意也不應(yīng)被視為法律或投資建議。這里表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)、想法和意見僅代表作者個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點(diǎn)和意見。

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