為何比特幣價格跌破 4 萬美元？

它會進一步崩潰還是從這里恢復？

主要亮點：

• 在 Grayscale 和 FTX 大規模拋售比特幣后，比特幣跌破 4 萬美元，引發了對市場過熱和監管云的擔憂

• 當局加大審查力度，令投資者變得謹慎，等待更明確的指導方針，然后再重新入場。

• 圍繞現貨 ETF 的最初興奮消退，技術指標等潛在市場因素表明調整即將到來。

加密

貨幣市場遭受重創，

根據幣安的數據

，比特幣目前的估值為 39,407 美元

比特幣為何下跌？

多種因素導致比特幣價格在2021年11月10日達到峰值68,770美元，并在2010年7月17日觸底0.05萬美元，今天大幅下跌。

歷史高點后的最低點為 15,599 美元，此后最高漲幅達到 48,941 美元。

目前的預測描繪了比特幣的疲軟前景，恐懼與貪婪指數集中在 50，表明前景平衡。

比特幣崩盤：原因和后果

1. 灰度的比特幣拋售

在為幾只現貨比特幣 ETF 開綠燈后，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 見證了因其灰度比特幣信托 (GBTC) 而廣受歡迎的灰度 (Grayscale) 采取了一項重大舉措，出售了大約 3 只現貨比特幣 ETF。

52,227 BTC，價值 21.4 億美元。

比特幣資產大幅減少的連鎖反應和原因隨之而來。

波動的市場動態和不斷變化的投資者行為趨勢促使灰度決定縮減其比特幣資產規模。

有幾個因素導致投資者退出 GBTC，包括與大多數 ETF 發行人相比，年管理費高得多（1.5%），以及 GBTC 股價觀點的轉變。

2. FTX 數十億美元的拋售

Another reason for the turbulence in the crypto market is the massive sell-off by FTX, roughly amounting to almost $1 billion in Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares. The company, currently engaged in bankruptcy proceedings, had to sell off all 22 million GBTC shares to satisfy creditor requirements. This essential move for FTX's financial restructuring during bankruptcy raised concerns about overall market stability and contributed to current market challenges.

3. Overheated Signals in Cryptocurrency

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant upward trend with minimal corrections over an extended period, culminating in the recent downturn.

This surge was primarily driven by the heightened expectation of the approval of a spot BTC ETF. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, the price escalated from approximately $26K in mid-October to a peak of $48,500 by January, marking an impressive 86% increase.

Furthermore, indicators like the widely recognized Crypto Fear & Greed Index have been signaling an overheated market for some time. The Index, which had consistently hovered in the higher ranges, reflecting a prolonged state of market enthusiasm, shifted to a 'Neutral' status on January 15th. This was the first time it moved away from 'Greed' or 'Extreme Greed' categories in three months, indicating a shift in market sentiment and possibly suggesting overly optimistic behavior among market players, as inferred from various metrics.

4. Regulatory Challenges

The assertive approach of the SEC towards prominent crypto entities like Coinbase, Binance, and Ripple, along with skeptical views from influential figures such as Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chair Gary Gensler, has led to a climate of uncertainty. This situation is further intensified by major global entities like the EU and South Korea, which are in the process of establishing comprehensive crypto regulations, causing investors to seek clearer guidelines before investing in the cryptocurrency sector.

5. Anticipation of Critical Economic Reports

As significant economic reports are due this week, including the U.S. GDP figures for Q4 2023 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, investors are preparing for their potential impact on the markets. Additionally, forthcoming key metrics like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), set for release next week, are expected to shed light on the state of the U.S. economy.

Despite expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, any unexpected stringent actions could lead to further downturns in the cryptocurrency market.

Will Bitcoin Slide to $20,000?

鑒于最近跌破 40,000 美元，現在的關鍵問題是比特幣價格是否會保持在 38,000 美元以上，即下一個重要支撐位。

然而，如果比特幣跌破 34,000 美元，可能會引發各種結果。

盡管有點出乎意料，但比特幣 ETF 押注價格下跌的可能性是合理的。

如果比特幣未能見證復蘇（價格上漲），它可能會掙扎一段時間。

未來兩天至關重要；

如果 BTC 價格跌破 32,000 美元，則可能會跌至 20,000 美元。

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