我相信比特幣在未來(lái)幾年將會(huì)升值，因?yàn)槲翌A(yù)計(jì)對(duì)比特幣的需求將會(huì)增加，主要原因有兩個(gè)：

1. 比特幣成為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣；

   本國(guó)貨幣的無(wú)國(guó)界且中立的替代品。

2. 由于美國(guó)債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)過(guò)高，導(dǎo)致美元貶值，無(wú)法償還債務(wù)，而不會(huì)讓通脹首先侵蝕其實(shí)際價(jià)值，投資者將配置比特幣作為流動(dòng)性非通脹資產(chǎn)。

你什么時(shí)候應(yīng)該購(gòu)買比特幣？

從根本上來(lái)說(shuō)，只有兩種情況你應(yīng)該購(gòu)買比特幣：

1. 如果您相信比特幣會(huì)隨著時(shí)間的推移而升值。

2. 如果您認(rèn)為您可能希望在未來(lái)某個(gè)時(shí)候獲得比特幣的獨(dú)特功能，并且存在您在需要時(shí)無(wú)法購(gòu)買比特幣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

您不必確定上述任何一點(diǎn)，因?yàn)橥顿Y與概率、預(yù)期價(jià)值和不確定性有關(guān)。

您也不必投入所有資金或不投入任何資金。

對(duì)于大多數(shù)人來(lái)說(shuō)，少量分配是明智的。

為了確定購(gòu)買比特幣是否適合您，您需要弄清楚您對(duì)比特幣未來(lái)價(jià)格走勢(shì)的預(yù)期以及您自己擁有比特幣可能獲得的效用。

全世界已經(jīng)有數(shù)億人認(rèn)為比特幣適合他們。

據(jù)推測(cè)，他們所有人都預(yù)計(jì)比特幣會(huì)隨著時(shí)間的推移而升值和/或相信他們?cè)谏械哪硞€(gè)時(shí)刻需要利用比特幣的獨(dú)特功能。

有多少比特幣持有者，就有多少種不同的觀點(diǎn)。

為什么我相信比特幣會(huì)升值

在未來(lái)幾年中，我看到許多不同的觸發(fā)因素可能會(huì)推高比特幣的價(jià)格，包括：

• 2024 年 4 月，比特幣產(chǎn)量減半。

• 隨著華爾街大公司開(kāi)始營(yíng)銷其產(chǎn)品，比特幣 ETF 的流入量增加

• 財(cái)富不斷向年輕一代轉(zhuǎn)移，需求增加，他們更傾向于投資比特幣。

然而，鑒于已經(jīng)存在需求，這些觸發(fā)因素只能解釋需求的變化。

如果沒(méi)有其他驅(qū)動(dòng)因素，比特幣的價(jià)值將是脆弱的，因?yàn)樗粫?huì)建立在其具有價(jià)值的共同幻想上，而不是任何潛在的效用之上。

如果是這樣的話，批評(píng)者就是對(duì)的，比特幣就跟豆豆寶寶、NFT 或郁金香一樣；

最終會(huì)破裂的金融泡沫。

I’m not a fan of trading financial bubbles, yet I am one of the hundreds of millions of owners of bitcoin. The reason is that I see a lot of fundamental value derived from the unique properties of bitcoin, and my long term investment thesis is fairly simple. I believe that bitcoin will become an important asset serving as a part of the infrastructure in the global financial system, and that this will drive substantial investor demand, eventually pushing bitcoin to a valuation of at least several hundred thousand dollars a unit.

I’m not certain of this and have not allocated all my wealth to bitcoin, but I’m convinced enough to take what many would describe as an irresponsibly large long position.

Collapsing trust internationally

The way I see it, we are moving towards a multipolar, fragmented international political settlement. The days with the U.S. as the clear hegemon are gone. In a world of more balanced, competing geopolitical interests, I don’t see how China would trust the dollar, how the U.S. would trust the yuan, how Russia would trust the Euro, and vice versa.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, its assets were frozen, and political interests are now working to confiscate the assets and use them against Russia. The whole world is noticing this, and nation states all over the world are now looking for seizure resistant assets like gold, which they hold within their own borders.

It is against this backdrop I believe that bitcoin will rise to the occasion. I believe that trade will continue globally, meaning that there will be a need for global payment rails.

But how will companies and individuals be able to pay when the receiving party of the payment operates from a different country or geopolitical cluster? What happens if an exporter only accepts yuan, but you only have dollars? By definition, you cannot simply exchange the dollars to yuan, because the entities that are willing to trust dollars, which at the end of the day are claims on U.S. banks and the U.S., would not be willing to trust yuan in a scenario where international trust breaks down.

Dollars do not get transformed into yuan when you exchange them. What happens instead is that the one with dollars tries to find someone who has yuan who can sell these in exchange for the dollars. When you have no one who trusts both China, and the U.S., i.e. are willing to, or able to, hold claims on both U.S. and Chinese entities, you also will have no one willing to exchange directly between dollars and yuan.

The solution in such a scenario, however, is simple. You need a neutral and mutually trusted asset in between. Gold could serve this role, and has done so historically, but it is inconvenient and expensive to send gold around physically. Oil could also be used, but is not divisible enough and is expensive to store and protect. Lastly, one could imagine small neutral countries like Switzerland acting as intermediaries, but they are likely to come under too much pressure from the larger centers of power. Bitcoin, however, is in many ways designed for the job.

Bitcoin as a trustless alternative

Bitcoin is a digital bearer asset with intrinsic value, meaning that the value rests within the bitcoin itself, not as a claim on any counterparty. The value may fluctuate and be uncertain, but it's intrinsic to the sats making up a bitcoin, nonetheless.

Bitcoin is not controlled by any states or centralized constellations of power. Bitcoin is also traded all over the world, against every currency, and can be stored and transferred digitally at almost no cost.

In other words, you could easily take your dollars, buy bitcoin, send the bitcoin to the receiver, who then could buy yuan. That way you would be able to cross a geographical trust border and have efficient and final settlement any time of the day, any day of the week, any week of the year.

This cannot be done with traditional national currencies or bank money, as they only exist as claims on a given counterparty (typically a bank). Before bitcoin every digital asset was a claim. Bitcoin is the first digital bearer asset without counterparty risk the world has seen.

A claim can circulate as money within a jurisdiction which can enforce the claim, and its associated trust circle. A claim will however not circulate as money or be accepted outside of its jurisdiction or trust circle, as there is no way you can ensure that it would be honored.

Not only that, but you also run the risk of the money being deprecated in your hands for political reasons should the issuer or its nation state not like what you are doing or classify you as a high-risk user.

I believe that bitcoin will become the neutral international currency, serving as the glue for global trade in a fragmented world. If so, it will succeed because it can serve the role of the least common denominator. It is unlikely to be the favorite of any nation state, or commercial entity for that matter, but it would be preferred over the currency of a competing nation state and over the alternative of no trade.

Replacing the dollar in international finance

For decades the U.S. dollar has served as the world's reserve currency, but I believe those days are numbered. I believe the main reason is the growing fear of the US leveraging its currency as a weapon, censoring those that they disagree with.

此外，美國(guó)巨額債務(wù)也不利于美元的地位。

美國(guó)的債務(wù)超過(guò) 34 萬(wàn)億美元，赤字達(dá) 2 萬(wàn)億美元，利息支付呈爆炸式增長(zhǎng)，目前每年高達(dá) 1 萬(wàn)億美元。

這是不可持續(xù)的。

以今天的購(gòu)買力，債務(wù)不可能用美元來(lái)解決。

換句話說(shuō)，要么美國(guó)拖欠債務(wù)，要么美國(guó)讓通貨膨脹吞噬未償還債務(wù)的實(shí)際價(jià)值。

1971年，戴高樂(lè)派船去接美國(guó)欠法國(guó)的黃金時(shí)，尼克松放棄了金本位制。

2021年和2022年，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和政策制定者堅(jiān)稱通脹是暫時(shí)的，而通脹卻飆升至2%左右目標(biāo)的五倍左右。

他們知道，鑒于巨額債務(wù)積壓，捍衛(wèi)貨幣價(jià)值的后果，反而會(huì)讓購(gòu)買力隨著時(shí)間的推移而惡化，侵蝕債務(wù)的實(shí)際價(jià)值。

結(jié)果，持有美元變得越來(lái)越?jīng)]有吸引力，投資者正在尋找替代方案。

在眾多替代方案中，比特幣開(kāi)始對(duì)越來(lái)越多的投資者越來(lái)越有吸引力。

我的計(jì)劃是現(xiàn)在購(gòu)買我的股份。

你知道，萬(wàn)一它流行起來(lái)。

熱點(diǎn)：我的比特幣 比特幣 特幣 的比特幣