CNBC 預計比特幣 ETF 現貨交易將立即進行

時間：2024-01-09|瀏覽：286

CNBC 預計現貨 ETF 將于本周獲得美國 SEC 批準，并在下一個工作日立即交易。

現貨 ETF 即將由美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 做出決定，潛在的交易活動預計將于本周末開始。

預期的批準日期定于周三，對于許多渴望獲得進入新興市場綠燈的申請人來說至關重要。

據 CNBC 記者凱特·魯尼 (Kate Rooney) 報道，可靠消息來源證實現貨 ETF 本周有可能獲得批準，最早在周四或周五引發潛在的交易狂潮。

這一發展如果實現，將預示著美國數字資產投資的變革時代，為眾多申請人打開大門。

魯尼敏銳地觀察到 ETF 發行人之間不斷升級的競爭，并預見到一場以現貨 ETF 費用為中心的“價格戰”即將到來。

隨著大量申請進入監管渠道，貝萊德、富達和灰度等行業巨頭正準備展開一場激烈的爭奪投資者注意力的戰斗，不僅在批準前的營銷沖突中，而且在隨后的定價環境中。

1 月 8 日，樂觀價格跌至 2.90 美元的 14 天低點，較 12 月 27 日創下的 4.18 美元歷史高點下跌 30%。

價格迅速下跌是由于 245 萬美元的多頭樂觀 (OP) 期貨合約在 24 小時內瘋狂清算。

衍生品市場數據趨勢為了解樂觀期貨交易的巨大變化可能如何影響未來幾天的 OP 現貨價格走勢提供了重要見解。

為什么樂觀主義的價格下跌？

隨著以太坊第 2 層擴展協議記錄了突破性的網絡使用里程碑，樂觀價格在 12 月 27 日達到了 4.18 美元的歷史新高。

但到了歲末年初，山寨幣市場漲勢放緩，OP持有者開始獲利了結。

值得注意的是，OP 價格在 1 月 8 日凌晨跌破 3 美元大關，引發衍生品市場數百萬美元的損失。

最新的 OP 價格下跌使其較 12 月 27 日創下的 4.18 美元歷史高點下跌了 30%。

樂觀情緒最近的價格下跌趨勢似乎讓看漲的期貨交易商沒有意識到。

具有代表性的是，衍生品市場的廣泛清算預示著周一的價格下跌。

Coinglass 的清算熱圖顯示，OP 1 月 8 日的負面價格走勢導致超過 280 萬美元的期貨合約蒸發。

當不利的價格走勢迫使投機交易者因保證金不足而平倉時，就會發生清算事件。

Coinglass 的清算數據熱圖顯示了損失主要方向的實時快照。

The green bars above show LONG traders suffered a disproportionately high incidence of daily losses compared to bears. Notably, by midday Eastern Time on Jan. 8, the Optimism bulls bore 86% of the heat, with $2.49 million OP LONG positions erased.

Optimism open interest has shrunk in 12 Days

The rising spate of Optimism open interest relative to spot prices in the last 12 days is another critical market indicator highlighting the growing bearish pressure on OP. Since Dec. 27, Optimism open interest (OI) has plummeted 10% faster than price, signaling a wave of voluntary exits as market momentum flips bearish.

As illustrated below, Optimism open interest has declined 40% from $347.9 million to $209 million between Dec. 27 and Jan. 8. Comparatively, OP spot prices have only declined 30% from $4.11 to a local bottom of $2.90.

Open interest quantifies the total capital invested in active derivatives contracts for a specific crypto asset. Strategic investors consider it a bearish signal when open interest for an asset shrinks. It indicates that more capital flows out of the markets, than investors bringing fresh funds.

The current market dynamics illustrate a 30% drop in OP price since rejecting from the market top on Dec. 27. But on a more concerning note, capital stock in the Optimism futures contracts have shrunk 10% faster.

The $2.4 million spike in OP LONG liquidations on Jan. 8 indicates forced selling, where traders are compelled to exit their long positions due to adverse price movements. Additionally, open interest declining faster than Optimism price implies that not only are traders voluntarily closing positions, but also an accelerated liquidation effect.

This bearish alignment suggests further price downside, potentially driven by margin calls and stop-loss triggers.

Based on the current market data trends, OP price looks set for a retest of the $2.50 territory. But to fully capitalize on the growing negative momentum, the bears must first break down the psychological support level at $3.

IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around price (IOMAP) data uses current OP holders’ historical entry prices to outline key support and resistance zones. It shows that the bears could face significant pushback in the $3 area.

As seen below, 3,260 addresses had acquired 6.1 million OP tokens at an average price of $3.03. If this significant cluster of investors makes short-covering purchases to defend their positions, OP price could rebound.

However, a detour below $3 could set off another wave of margin calls and stop-loss triggers. As predicted, this bearish scenario will likely open the doors to a $2.50 OP price retest.

On the upside, the bulls could regain control of the market of Optimism price reclaims $4. But in that case, the 7,800 addresses acquired 44.3 million OP at the average price of $3.50. If investors choose to book early profits, OP price will retrace again.

However, a positive spot ETF could spread bullish headwinds to the altcoin markets. If this scenario, OP bulls could gain sufficient momentum to breach that $3.50 resistance sell-wall.

Standard Chartered Bank anticipates a substantial influx of $50 to $100 billion into Bitcoin after approving spot ETFs, with industry experts speculating a decision by this week.

Standard Chartered Bank recently made a noteworthy prediction regarding Bitcoin, foreseeing a substantial influx of $50 to $100 billion in spot ETF inflows upon approval of the investment product, expected in 2024.

The international banking giant’s forecast is based on the anticipation surrounding more than a dozen spot ETF applications currently under consideration by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Industry experts are heightening their expectations for the imminent approval, with many speculating a decision by Wednesday. Standard Chartered’s projections extend beyond the immediate financial implications, suggesting a significant positive impact on following ETF approval.

The bank is not alone in contemplating the potential ramifications of a spot ETF approval. The broader digital asset industry is enthusiastic, and stakeholders are closely watching developments unfold.

According to Standard Chartered, it could not only witness substantial inflows but also achieve a remarkable price milestone of $200,000 by the end of 2025, surpassing its previous all-time high.

Earlier today, it reached $45,000, its highest since May 2022, when the market collapsed following Terraform Lab’s UST and LUNA crash. However, Bitcoin’s rally continues, as it reached $47,000 at the time of writing, recording a nearly 6% rise in 24 hours.

At the same time,the trading volume is also soaring across all major exchanges. According to daily trading volume has increased by over 120% today, and its market cap has increased by 6%. This shows a large volume of net investment inflow as traders demonstrate tremendous confidence in the leading token.

The rally is fueled by several reports of imminent spot ETF approval by the SEC, either this week or early next week. Just moments ago, CNBC reporters stated that ETF approval might come this Wednesday or Thursday.

Earlier today, banking giant Standard Chartered predicted that it might witness $50 to $100 billion in net flows if the SEC approves the spot ETF. There is strong market confidence in it, and further demand driven by fear of missing out from the community is driving BTC prices to the $50,000 mark.

Although STRK has not officially launched, the Starknet community showed overwhelming support for an upgrade aiming to introduce the native crypto as a gas token.

Starknet saw 99.8% of its participating delegates vote to implement Alpha version 0.13.0 on its mainnet, as no member of the Starknet Governance Committee opposed the proposal. The update aims to enable a dual token system allowing Ethereum Layer-2 (L2) network users to settle gas fees in either Ether (ETH) or STRK.

However, users will not immediately be able to pay for transactions using STRK since the native token remains unreleased.

The dual fee structure is only one-half of Starkent’s proposed update. Alpha v.13 will also slash gas fees by up to 50% and optimize network performance through technological improvements.

Starknet uses rollup solutions built on zero knowledge to scale Ethereum’s blockchain, offering cheaper fees and faster transactions. It currently costs less than $1 to send ETH and swap other ERC-20 tokens via STRK’s decentralized network.

To achieve this, the protocol bundles transactions on an off-chain layer before broadcasting the same on-chain actions on Ethereum’s main chain.

Launched in February 2022 by Israel-based blockchain firm StarkWare Industries, the Ethereum scaling network plans to distribute 1.8 billion STRK tokens in user rewards, with at least 50 million tokens designated for early adopters.

There is speculation regarding a general community airdrop for network participants andprices are down with traders anticipating further volatility this week. One project that’s trending lower is Solana. It is down 11.4% in the past seven days, dropping to $86.95. However, analysts are bullish on Bitcoin Minetrix as its presale surges past $7.8 million.

The volatility to rise as ETF approval deadline looms.

Concerns of mass volatility have taken their toll on Solana’s price, with it recently touching its lowest in three weeks.

Currently, Solana is trading at $90.8, down 4.9% today. It has also suffered a 29% decrease from its local top of $124.

Experts are concerned of even more downside potential, likely induced by immense volatility as the market reacts to upcoming Bitcoin ETF news.

Trader Kaz The Shadow recently posted a broader market overview, warning investors that “volatility will be very high” this week.

He concluded, “If you are not experienced in the market with these bounces, wicks and scam moves and don’t know how to manage your risk then you shouldn’t trade or just lower your size.”

This analysis implies that there will be an uptrend continuation once Solana retests $70.

Meanwhile, Pentoshi holds a similar outlook, predicting Solana will sell off to $70 before bouncing and continuing to climb.

The analyst explained in a recent tweet “not sure we get as low as I have here, but do expect at some point to be able to bid in the $70’s.”

But not all analysts are confident Solana will switch bullish after a short-term pullback.

The Dog explained a theory that the market is near its current cycle’s top.

鑒于比特幣減半即將到來，如果準確的話，這將是前所未有的事件。

Crypto Dog 暗示最近的反彈是“受 BTC ETF 刺激”。

然而，他也認為“催化劑已經失效”，“現在我們需要在下一次反彈之前崩潰并冷靜一段時間”。

該推文已獲得 56.8 萬瀏覽量，但得到了其他領先分析師的總體負面回應，Satoshi Flipper 回應“4.4 萬美元是本輪牛市的頂部？”

最終，比特幣 ETF 可能在幾天后出現的加密貨幣前所未有的格局將給市場注入不確定性和疑慮。

這對 Solana 的價格產生了顯著影響，但許多分析師預計，在未來幾周內恢復之前，高波動性將持續下去。

然而，盡管市場環境動蕩，一些加密貨幣仍然泰然處之。